Photo: Jakub Pavlinec / iStockphoto

So a declaration was forthcoming from Copenhagen. It called for, amongst other things:

• A complete abandonment of fossil fuels within the next 30 years.
• Recognition, payment and compensation of climate debt for the overconsumption of atmospheric space and adverse effects of climate change.
• A rejection of purely market-oriented and technology centred solutions.
• Real solutions to the climate crisis based on safe, clean, renewable and sustainable use of natural resources as well as food, energy, land and water sovereignty.

If this doesn’t look like what has been reported as agreed at the COP-15 talks in Copenhagen, that is because it is not – this is the declaration from Klimaforum, the People’s Climate Summit also held in Copenhagen over the last couple of weeks. Of course the formal negotiations were never expected to deliver as radical an outcome, but they failed to deliver anything like the progress that many political and civic leaders had hoped for, and that the climate change science demands. Before looking at what did come out of COP-15 it is worth reflecting on what was not agreed:   

• There is no binding legal global deal on reducing emissions, nor is there an agreed timetable in place for achieving such a deal
• There is no structure in place for following on from the Kyoto Protocol, the delivery period for which ends in 2012.

Either of these outcomes would probably have seen Copenhagen lauded as a real success. Instead the price of carbon on the open market has actually dropped as a result of disappointment about the results of the talks, and business leaders are reported as saying the talks lead to a confused and unclear position which does not encourage investment in sustainable climate solutions.

Questions are being asked as to whether this type of UN led process is the best way to deal with the issue of climate change. The Danish organisation of the conference is not getting great press either, though Connie Hedegaard, who resigned as President of COP-15 during the two week process, is the Danish nominee to become the European Union’s first climate commissioner.

The Copenhagen Accord is the main document (but not the only one, other technical ones here) to emerge from the talks. It has been widely reported that the Accord was drawn up by only 5 of the 192 countries in attendance at the talks, however documents coming to light indicate that other countries (up to 30, with a majority from developing countries) took part, including representation from the Alliance of Small Island States and that the European Commission President Barroso was also involved. It is clear that the driving countries were the USA, together with India, China, South Africa and Brazil.

Whoever was involved, the Accord was drawn up outside the formal COP-15 procedures, so it is not surprising that many countries feel they were left out until they were asked to sign up to a document they hadn’t seen before. It remains to be seen how many will take this step. The only COP-15 Conference wide view, taken at a final plenary session on Saturday was that Conference would “take note” of the Accord.

Barrack Obama had said he was at the talks to act, not to talk, and so it was inconceivable that he would go home without some form of outcome, though he conceded that the Accord was “not enough”, and the US and Europe seem to be blaming China as being responsible for some of the vague language it contains.

Obama does have his hands tied by the fact that US legislation on climate change remains under consideration in the US Congress and so he couldn’t make too many grand proclamations on what the stance of the USA might be on reducing emissions (maybe he’ll be able to next year, he seems to be making progress on another big issue, healthcare at the moment and having China and India on board with the Accord will help in Congress).

Obama clearly used the COP-15 stage to speak to his domestic audience – it appears that he chose to brief the White House Press Corps on the development of the Accord before other media, and more fundamentally, country delegations knew of its existence.

The Accord itself is full of some tortuous language. Given that it has not been formally adopted, it has no legal status, but the headlines are that it:

• Reiterates that “climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time”.
• Recognises the imperative to keep global average temperature rise to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius (but does not say which emissions levels should be allowed relating to this, nor does it give a timeline).
• Requires developed countries to outline what their emissions targets for 2020 will be, information which needs submitted to the UN by the end of January 2010. There is no requirement for information on longer term targets.
• Requires developing countries to submit mitigation actions they will take, and for this information to be submitted to the UN by the end of January 2010. Information on these, and reporting, will be through “National Communications” – this is short of the formal verification and reporting process the USA wanted to see in return for money being made available to developing countries – this was a key area of disagreement between USA and China.
• Recognises that reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is fundamental and that a mechanism should be established to reduce this problem.
• Decides to pursue opportunities to use markets to enhance the cost effectiveness of, and to promote, mitigation actions, and also to provide incentives to low emitting countries to continue on such a track.
• Recognises that enhanced action and international co-operation is required on climate change adaptation.
• Makes $30 billion funding available for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries between 2010 and 2012, with a goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year by 2020.
• Establishes a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund for this money to flow through, and to support mitigation activities in developing countries. A Technology Mechanism also to be established to accelerate technology development and technology transfer, and a high level panel to be established to consider further sources of revenue.
• Requires an assessment of the implementation of the Accord to take place in 2015, including consideration of a 1.5 degrees Celsius figure rather than the 2 degrees Celsius figure. 

The references to funding are interesting, but without global agreement on the Accord they, as well as other aspects of the Accord, could be derailed at any time. If countries do not sign up to the Accord and do not deliver the information it calls for by the end of January, it is difficult to see how the Accord could be the platform to be built on that some say it is. Reports on the Accord have varied, but no-one is reporting that it is anything more than a stepping stone at best, and a disaster at worst.

What happens next? The UN system is the only one in town at the moment, and that bandwagon rolls onto a technical meeting in May/June 2010, followed by COP-16 in Mexico later in the year (they have a COP-16 website, but it is a little devoid of UN relevant information at the moment).

The final interesting website for this blog is India Climate Solutions: Be the Change – this gives a selection of practical examples of low carbon solutions in India.

Finally, this is my last blog on Copenhagen 2009, so if you have any feedback, feel free to send it in to graeme.cook@scottish.parliament.uk

It was a fair bet that any deal reached at Copenhagen would be reached at breakneck speed as the talks were due to end. Despite years of preparations and frenzied negotiations in the last 2 weeks, so it appears to be coming to pass.

Some sort of deal was always possible, however over the last few weeks it has become clear that a legally binding global deal on emissions reductions was unlikely, but that Copenhagen was vital to provide the basis for such a deal to be reached in 2010. What appears to be happening is that such a legally binding deal on emissions reductions and other matters certainly has not been reached, and that the best that can be hoped for is agreement of the COP-15 conference for the only text on the table, which has been drawn up today by the USA, India, China, South Africa and Brazil.

So far the floor of the plenary at COP-15 has not yet agreed to this text, and it is being reported that world leaders are already beginning to leave the talks, with some, such as Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan President, appearing to be feeling excluded, saying that he would not accept a text just slipped under the door by some countries that had reached a deal between themselves. Whether this view is taken in the plenary of the conference remains to be seen, as talks are expected to continue well into the night.

The UK Prime Minister has said the text provides progress but it is not enough, and that he will now lead a worldwide campaign for a legally binding deal. The Prime Minister expects all countries to agree to the text on the floor of the plenary which appears to include:

• An agreement to take actions to limit global average temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius.
• Those actions to be consistent with science.
• National emissions plans required by all countries.
• Agreement on finance for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.

There is confusion as to whether the text includes a timetable for action towards any global deal in 2010 though it seems industrialised nations will have to report on their emissions reduction targets by February 2010. Earlier versions of the draft did have specific timescales for a legally binding agreement, but these appear to have been edited out as the day has progressed.

The President of the United States, Barack Obama set out his position at lunchtime, stating that he was in Copenhagen not for words, but for action, and that the US was ready to seal a deal today. Obama, talking about the text, appeared to be talking about national commitments and policies the USA has already set in motion. Obama of course may have his hands tied by the fact that domestic climate change legislation remains in Congress, and is not yet law.

The European Union position appears to be that this is the only deal in town, that it provides something to build on, and so it is likely to come behind the text.  It is reported that other countries will reject the text on the floor of the plenary, but for that we will just have to wait and see.  

 After COP-15 ends, more climate talks are scheduled to be held in Bonn, Germany in 6 months time, though it had not been scheduled that world leaders would attend that meeting. COP-16, the next in the annual cycle, is scheduled to take place in Mexico in late 2010.

Today’s interesting website is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific forum on which most climate policy is based. 

I’ll blog over the next couple of days and try to tie up any loose ends. In the meantime, if you’ve any comments on this blog, good or bad, I could use them to help evaluate whether this is the sort of medium the Parliament could use in the future. Please send any comments to graeme.cook@scottish.parliament.uk

Above, you have to cycle for your Christmas tree lights in Copenhagen….

The leaders of the world’s nations are now out in force at the COP-15 talks. They have arrived after a process lasting nearly two years from the development of the so called Bali Roadmap, and after nearly 2 weeks of increasingly frenzied talks between negotiators and Ministers representing the nations of the world.

There are few issues which would draw together such a global gathering, but it is a sign of the general acceptance that something must be done – as ever the question is what that should be. This week I haven’t spoken to anyone who has voiced the belief that the issue is not important, but today claims have been made, reported on the Cop-15 website, that leaders and nations who claim to be guided by the science, but espouse weak and scientifically unsupportable targets could be more dangerous than those who are sceptics about climate change.

The other thing that has been prevalent this week is the belief that it is within the wit of man to devise the means to address the issue, whether that be through technological or behavioural means – what is required is political will over the next two days to move these issues on in an equitable fashion.

Late last night the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the US would join others in raising $100 billion dollars to combat climate change, but that this would only be forthcoming if developing nations are transparent about their emissions. Friends of the Earth responded to this announcement warning that the amount on the table is short of UN estimates of the money required, and that too much of it comes from repackaged aid money and an expansion of carbon markets. Friends of the Earth are calling for the USA to agree to higher cuts in emissions, and for funding to tackle climate change to come from new sources.

Today, many observer organisations have been barred from the talks, but it seems that things are progressing as follows:

• The talks have been brought back on track, to a degree, by the Danish Presidency.
• However it is reported that the emissions cuts on the table would lead to temperature rises of 3 degrees Celsius, well above the 1.5 or 2 degrees most people have talked about in Copenhagen.
• China has indicated it is willing to provide details about its actions on greenhouse gas emissions, which would help meet a key demand of the USA – this has been an issue in the way of any agreement at Copenhagen and is despite reports earlier in the day that China may be feeling that only a short political statement would come out of the talks rather than a detailed accord.
• The delegation from the European Parliament has said that the EU must remain firm in its resolve to keep targets of 30% emissions reductions by 2020.
• World leaders such as France’s President Sarkozy, and the Secretary-General of the United Nations are saying that failure at Copenhagen would be catastrophic.

 By the end of tomorrow we’ll see how the talks end.

Today’s interesting link is the African Union, which is focusing on climate change and COP-15.

 By the way, if anyone is actually reading this blog, it would be useful to get some feedback, good or bad, so the Parliament can evaluate it, and decide whether to do this type of thing in the future. Please email graeme.cook@scottish.parliament.uk with any comments.

Things are becoming increasingly fraught at the climate talks in Copenhagen. There was an overnight session on Tuesday night as negotiators tried to keep things on track in order to deliver a text that would be acceptable for world leaders to sign. Whether such a text is what is required from a scientific basis is entirely another matter, something which almost seems to be lost in the unbelievable chaos of the Bella Centre, where thousands of people march from meeting room to side event to national delegation rooms, and into bilateral talks if required. Most people look exhausted. I’m amazed anything at all gets agreed, but it seems this is how international diplomacy functions.

Matters weren’t helped today when the Danish Minister for the COP-15 talks, resigned from her role as President of the conference, reportedly to allow the Prime Minister of Denmark to take over the role as it would be more appropriate for him to do so as so many world leaders were arriving. This was certainly unexpected. Also unexpected, this evening the UN’s top climate official Yvo De Boer reported that talks had stopped. This is not scheduled and it seems that delegates need time to discuss how the rest of the talks are to go. It had been expected that the Danish conference presidency would present a text designed to reach consensus this evening, particularly between African and island nations, and the developed countries, but there is no sign of this. The issues still waiting for resolution are the same ones as earlier in the week:

• Money for developing countries – both to help them reduce their own emissions they seek to develop, and to adapt to the effects of climate change.
• Progress towards clear, binding targets in a global agreement which will see developed countries make real, meaningful progress in emissions reductions.

It continues to be unlikely that a binding global agreement will be signed this week, but Copenhagen remains crucial if an agreement is to be reached next year. The world leaders are beginning to arrive, and maybe this will give the talks the boost they need. The carbon footprint of the conference has certainly gone up with many more motorcades, police and helicopters in evidence.

One issue that did get some movement today was forestry, with the US, Australia, France, Japan, Norway and the UK making $3.5 billion available for developing countries that produce ambitious plans to slow and eventually reverse deforestation. The draft text of a forestry agreement circulating in the conference though is a lot shorter and weaker than previous drafts.

The organisation outside the conference continues to leave a lot to be desired – I’m not sure the Italian Environment Minister was too impressed at being locked out of the talks earlier in the day after coming in the wrong entrance. Another organisation barred from the conference was Friends of the Earth, one of many observer organisations feeling increasingly marginalised in the Conference. It has been clear for days that observer organisations would be getting only a handful of spaces in the conference over the last two crucial days, but the protest actions from Friends of the Earth inside also led to a complete closedown for any more observers gaining access today. A demonstration, smaller than that held on Saturday, marched on the Bella Centre at around midday but were kept away from the perimeter fence. 

The Danish Government and a Danish NGO network are hastily trying to set up an alternative centre for observers for the last couple of days where they will be able to follow proceedings remotely (apart from the closed door meetings of course).

 Today’s interesting website is Nordhaven, Copenhagen’s new sustainable city district. If the new area builds on what already exists in the city then an excellent transport system, integrated renewable energy and fantastic cycling facilities will be part of the plans (over a third of journeys to work in Copenhagen are made by bicycle).

Photo: COP-15

Just out from a speech by Al Gore, where he delivered a call to action to deliver a good outcome from the Conference over the next 3 days. He knows that a binding legal agreement won’t come from Copenhagen, but for one to follow then Copenhagen must be a success. He pointed out that today the world has emitted another 90m tonnes of carbon dioxide, 25m of it ending up in the oceans and causing a more acidic sea. He also reflected that global emissions are up 40% on 1990 levels, and that the rate of increase has also gone up by 40% – all this despite the existence of the Kyoto Protocol which has seen reductions, for example in the European Union.

Gore called for two key date actions. Firstly that the US Congress make sure the climate change legislation which has passed through the House of Representatives makes its way through the Senate and out of Congress by 22 April 2010 – the 40th anniversary of Earth Day. Secondly he called for COP-16, the next annual round of talks, to be brought forward to July 2010 and that this should see a binding agreement reached on emissions levels. On the numbers involved, Gore said that whilst we are already at 388 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, this compares to 280 ppm in pre-industrial times, and that the target should be to stabilise emissions at 350ppm.

Finally Gore argued that future generations should not be able to ask us why the arguments going on in the Conference rooms in Copenhagen were more important than reaching a solution, and that they wouldn’t care what the arguments were anyway if the Conference did not deliver.

Elsewhere this afternoon I managed to gatecrash a meeting between ocean climate scientists from Stanford University and a “staffer” from the House of Representatives- they talked about how more American politicians could be persuaded to see the acidification of the oceans, and sea level rise, as issues that needed to be addressed. They seemed quite happy to draw some comparisons with Scotland, as they have academic contacts there, and seemed to know a lot about Oban and East Kilbride.

Patrick Harvie MSP managed to get through the crowds and into the talks, whilst the other MSPs in the party, Cathy Peattie and Rob Gibson, attended meetings in the city centre relating to climate change and the Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change Committee inquiry into active travel. Patrick and I met a Finnish activist from a group seeking to protect the Boreal Forest in Finland and beyond. They knew some people from Reforesting Scotland, and their website is my interesting one of the day (just in case I can’t blog again).

We’ve just heard a new draft text for the overall agreement from the Conference will be released in a few minutes so I think I’ll hang about for that then head into the Copenhagen evening.

Photo: Graeme Cook

As you’ll see from the photo, the main plenary room wasn’t in use when I wandered in, but it will be the scene of much of the high level negotiation to come, and is now packed out.  I didn’t get into the meeting Milliband was chairing as yet another pass is needed, one of which I should pick up later. I attended another meeting where there was discussion on the consequences of climate change, but I suspect that the G77 nations and the European Union are in bilateral talks as neither turned up.

I’m in a meeting on a report on Melting Ice which has been instigated and led by Al Gore. The report presents information that shows that the summer sea ice extent in the Arctic has diminished by over 40% since the 1970s. This decrease is much faster and more dramatic than any previous models had predicted. A related issue highlighted is pollutants transferred from the industrial areas of the world to areas covered by snow and ice. This soot reduces the reflectivity of the sun, and instead absorbs heat and leads to further melting. At the South Pole, there are indications that there is a net loss of ice from Antarctica.

As far as glaciers are concerned, the report indicates that large glaciers around the world are showing a trend of retreating, though there are 100,000 glaciers, including many smallers ones for which there is little historic data. It is reported that 50% of observed sea level rise is as a result of melting glaciers, and if all melt there wil be a sea level rise of 0.4 metres.  The report indicates that permafrost temperatures in SIberia, Canada and northern Europe has increased by between 0.5 and 2 degrees celsius – imprtant because permafrost locks up greenhouse gases.

In an hour CNN and YouTube are to broadcast a live debate on climate change including views from all sides of the debate. I won’t go along but the media facilities here are fantastic so I may tune in to some of it remotely.  The photo below shows the computer area – this is vast, but wifi is available everywhere, and none of this includes journalists who have their own huge media centre (which they will be locked into on Thursday and Friday..).

Photo: Graeme Cook

A sprinkling of people met so far today include:

• South African representing the coal to liquid fuel lobby
• Indonesian Government representative
• Representative from Mediation Without Borders, who are trying to ensure mediation is included in the final Copenhagen Agreement (but they have little chance as the focus is on the headline issues – targets, finance, credibility)
• WWF Russia climate change representative
• Director of the Hazards, Climate and Environment Programme at the University of Hawaii
• Executive Director of the Danish Climate Consortium, a Government-Business initiative set up for COP-15 to ensure Danish business is equipped to deliver clean technologies around the world. The representative informed me that the Danish economy has grown 75% since the 1970s oil crisis, but with no increase in energy use – this is because the high taxes on oil and gas imposed during the oil crisis have been retained by Denmark, driving energy efficiency practice and green technology.

Well the 0542 train was worth it as I got to the front of the queue to get into the COP-15 talks. Only problem was I didn’t have the secondary pass to be able to gain the primary pass. I’m beginning to see why UN negotiations on anything are so complicated. Anyway, after some cold war-esque negotiations I’m now in, and have wandered about the labryinth of plenary sessions, meeting rooms and side events picking up titbits on the role of children in helping to adapt to climate change, and hearing a presentation from the USA Copenhagen 2009 team explaining how the ice caps are thinning.

The UK Climate Secretary Ed Milliband is about to chair a meeting to try and nail down some agreements on long term financing for adaptation and mitigation, a key area requiring progress today. He’ll be keen to make progress as Gordon Brown is in the talks today and will share a platform with the Prime Minister of Denmark and the Secretary-General of the United Nations at 1730 Copenhagen time. I think there is almost no chance of getting into this meeting as some of the meetings here are held behind closed doors (well you can peek in, but that is about it). There is loads going on everywhere though. I wandered into the rooms set aside for the use of each of the countries and spotted Ed Milliband striding out of the UK rooms towards the EU work area in advance of the event he is about to chair. No doubt he wants to make sure the UK and EU are singing from the same hymn sheet. He held the door open for me though, nice chap. I’m off to see if I can get into that meeting, and if no joy, I’ll head to a UN group on the consequences of climate change. More later…

Photo: Graeme Cook

Inside the talks today, events took a dramatic turn as  the G77 and African nations temporarily walked out as they felt the developed nations were seeking to avoid obligations to cut their emissions (these nations appear to have been coaxed back into talks). 

The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has warned that if the tough issues are left to global leaders to resolve, the world risks having a weak deal or no deal. Ed Milliband, the UK Climate Change Secretary has agreed with this and urged the Conference to get on with the job in hand, in order to leave only a few things for world leaders to agree when they arrive. Gordon Brown, the UK Prime Minister will arrive earlier than planned tomorrow, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is in town (California is often described as the 5th biggest economy in the world). Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond is here, and will meet Schwarzenegger at an event elsewhere in Copenhagen tomorrow.

Trying to gain entrance to the official COP-15 talks has proved to be a complete shambles today with hundreds of observers left to queue outside in the freezing cold for hours, only to be refused admission. More importantly, delegates who are supposed to be more actively engaging in the talks have also been left outside. For my part, I queued from 1030 to 1730, and got within 15 yards of accreditation before they closed it down.

The day wasn’t a disaster though. There was a real energy among the crowd, and I got the sense that people just wanted to be inside as they felt they had something positive to offer. I managed to make some interesting contacts just standing in the queue including:

• The Head of Power Up Canada, an environmental organisation.
• Director of the US Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy.
• A Japanese official there to report on Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions.
• A climate change adviser from the Swedish Parliament.
• Head of urban design programmes at the University of Pennsylvania
• The Welsh schools climate change champion.
• A nuclear lobbyist doing most of his work on Capitol Hill
• A Spanish journalist who was up for leading a revolution against the UN regarding the shambolic arrangements.

None of these people got into the talks either. Whether I try to be at the talks tomorrow at 6am remains to be seen, but that is what will be required to have any chance of getting in. The UN approved 30,000 observers, but the venue only holds 15,000 people. As more world leaders and their entourages arrive, so the number of observers allowed in each day reduces (reportedly to an astonishing 30 on Friday).

The MSPs in the Scottish Parliament party spent most of the day at the events hosted by the Scottish Government, which included a contribution from Mary Robinson, the former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The photo at the top of the blog is from one of tens of exhibitions on show around Copenhagen. This one showing a mock up of a satellite sat in a square next to a show of 100 places to remember before they disappear. Continuing this theme, today’s interesting website is the COP-15 climate visualisation using google earth.

Photo: Graeme Cook

 I arrived in Copenhagen at 1811 today, bang on time, amazing really given that the train made part of its journey aboard a ferry crossing the Fehmarn belt between Germany and Denmark (the photo above was taken from the train in northern Germany).

On arrival I headed to an event at the Klimaforum, which is billed as the alternative climate conference – inside it felt a bit like a music festival without the music, with many events and conversations taking place. The event I attended with Partick Harvie MSP saw activists from Brazil, Australia, Denmark and other countries share the stage, and I met the Irish Energy Minister, who was in attendance. The speakers felt that it isn’t too late for a legally binding agreement at Copenhagen but it has to be based on the science and so anything half hearted is little good.

Politicians on the stage from Canada and Australia drew attention to what they see as climate damaging policies around the exploitation of the tar sands in Canada, and coal in Australia. They also raised the prospect of an agreement in Copenhagen that could look more ambitious than it really is if deals are struck over the way in which land use, land use change and forestry are dealt with (emissions can be locked up using certain land practices, and this can be recognised in net emissions accounts). The small South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu got a lot of praise for standing its ground in looking for an ambitious agreement during negotiations over the last week, and their website is today’s interesting link.

Formal negotiations took a bit of a break today, but that didn’t mean too much as 48 Environment Ministers still met to pore over draft texts of agreements.

The estimates of the numbers attending yesterday’s climate march have now reached 100,000. It has come to light that many of the arrests made were pre-emptive, under new powers passed by the Danish Parliament allowing detention of anyone it is thought might commit a crime.

All the Scottish Parliament delegation is now together, staying in Malmo (Denmark was full..). Tomorrow we are all off to a Scotland Day being hosted by the Scottish Government.  We’ve already bumped into Scottish Enterprise officials who’ll be there as well.

Photograph: Robert Ellis / iStockphoto

Today was the day of one of the big climate change demonstrations in Copenhagen. The official COP-15 website reports 50,000 attendees in a 6 kilometre march, but no doubt those figures will be revised up or down depending on whose report you read. As was predicted, some marchers caused trouble and were arrested. The COP-15 website reports the march was organised by an astonishing 515 organisations from 67 countries. The type of organisations involved in modern climate campaigning and activism is much wider than the traditional environmental organisations. Stop Climate Chaos Scotland, to take an example from home, does have organisations such as Friends of the Earth Scotland and WWF Scotland as key contributors, but membership is also drawn from faith and religious groups, unions and aid organisations.

Inside the talks it is reported that the plenary sessions have stalled from time to time over the last couple of days as backroom negotiations take precedence. Draft texts (officially sanctioned this time) include the skeleton of agreements, but include a range of options for the percentage emissions cuts the final text will require by 2020 (between 25 and 45%, Scotland’s target is 42%). The draft texts also include reference to what an acceptable allowable global average temperature rise would be. Not surprisingly low level nations are arguing for a more ambitious limit though some scientists argue certain temperature rises are already locked into the earth’s atmospheric system.

As week 2 of the talks looms, it is imperative that agreement text begins to be firmed up as the world leaders arriving next week will need to have something to sign (some Environment Ministers have already begun to arrive). However, the texts being developed, and the agreements being made have not just been pulled together over the last few days – this process has been actively ongoing since the development of the so called “Bali Roadmap” in 2007, but the last few days before the Copenhagen conference closes will still be hectic.

It seems that progress has been made on some important issues such as on how to supply green technologies to developing countries and in promoting forests to soak up carbon dioxide, but there are fundamental disagreements on the age old questions of funding for developing countries, and how to share out the emissions cuts required. It is reported that developed countries are not happy with text circulating which they feel does not place high enough demands on developing nations whilst developing nations want guarantees of long term funding.

It appears that it is a possibility that the Kyoto Protocol could remain as a key instrument in reducing emissions, with an agreement that it could have a new commitment period to run from 2013. Alongside this a new Copenhagen Protocol could include those countries such as the USA, China and India that have never ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

I have to say that this hadn’t occurred to me, but a fifth of the United Nation’s interpreters are working at the Copenhagen conference. It should really have, as I’m halfway through a journey taking in 7 countries en route to the talks (Scotland, England, France, Belgium, Germany, Denmark and err Sweden – the latter is the closest hotel that could be found, but it’s only 30 minutes away by train from Copenhagen). Patrick Harvie MSP is undertaking a similar journey and we meet up with the others travelling from the Scottish Parliament tomorrow. I suspect I am surrounded by others travelling to Copenhagen on the train I am writing from, but I’ve not plucked up the courage to ask them yet (the French they are speaking is high pace).

We managed a short discussion with a saltire wearing British Council official as we swapped from the Eurostar to our next train in Brussels. The saltire he was wearing makes reference to the 42% emissions cut target by 2020 that the Scottish Parliament has legislated for. There is a Scotland day taking place in Copenhagen on Monday to which the Scottish Parliament delegation is invited.

Amazingly I also bumped into a good friend in Brussels who I had no idea was over from Scotland. He’s there for fun reasons, though he knows a lot of Flemish people, and we had a quick update on Flemish politics – it’s always interesting to hear of how things are in other devolved legislatures. Next stop Cologne in Germany.