It was a fair bet that any deal reached at Copenhagen would be reached at breakneck speed as the talks were due to end. Despite years of preparations and frenzied negotiations in the last 2 weeks, so it appears to be coming to pass.
Some sort of deal was always possible, however over the last few weeks it has become clear that a legally binding global deal on emissions reductions was unlikely, but that Copenhagen was vital to provide the basis for such a deal to be reached in 2010. What appears to be happening is that such a legally binding deal on emissions reductions and other matters certainly has not been reached, and that the best that can be hoped for is agreement of the COP-15 conference for the only text on the table, which has been drawn up today by the USA, India, China, South Africa and Brazil.
So far the floor of the plenary at COP-15 has not yet agreed to this text, and it is being reported that world leaders are already beginning to leave the talks, with some, such as Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan President, appearing to be feeling excluded, saying that he would not accept a text just slipped under the door by some countries that had reached a deal between themselves. Whether this view is taken in the plenary of the conference remains to be seen, as talks are expected to continue well into the night.
The UK Prime Minister has said the text provides progress but it is not enough, and that he will now lead a worldwide campaign for a legally binding deal. The Prime Minister expects all countries to agree to the text on the floor of the plenary which appears to include:
- An agreement to take actions to limit global average temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius.
- Those actions to be consistent with science.
- National emissions plans required by all countries.
- Agreement on finance for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.
There is confusion as to whether the text includes a timetable for action towards any global deal in 2010 though it seems industrialised nations will have to report on their emissions reduction targets by February 2010. Earlier versions of the draft did have specific timescales for a legally binding agreement, but these appear to have been edited out as the day has progressed.
The President of the United States, Barack Obama set out his position at lunchtime, stating that he was in Copenhagen not for words, but for action, and that the US was ready to seal a deal today. Obama, talking about the text, appeared to be talking about national commitments and policies the USA has already set in motion. Obama of course may have his hands tied by the fact that domestic climate change legislation remains in Congress, and is not yet law.
The European Union position appears to be that this is the only deal in town, that it provides something to build on, and so it is likely to come behind the text. It is reported that other countries will reject the text on the floor of the plenary, but for that we will just have to wait and see.
After COP-15 ends, more climate talks are scheduled to be held in Bonn, Germany in 6 months time, though it had not been scheduled that world leaders would attend that meeting. COP-16, the next in the annual cycle, is scheduled to take place in Mexico in late 2010.
Today’s interesting website is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific forum on which most climate policy is based.
I’ll blog over the next couple of days and try to tie up any loose ends. In the meantime, if you’ve any comments on this blog, good or bad, I could use them to help evaluate whether this is the sort of medium the Parliament could use in the future. Please send any comments to graeme.cook@scottish.parliament.uk
